This could get dicey folks. As of 26 minutes ago, we hit over 80,000 confirmed cases of Coronavirus including a disturbing rise in a country adjacent to my own. The spread of this virus has shone a light on the darker impulses of our species from democratic abuse to predatory behaviour from merchants hoping to cash in on a crisis.
Like many of you, I have been keeping my eye on the ball and assessing the situation as it develops. The girl & I are in Portugal which as of yet is still Coronavirus free but with Italy getting out of hand (11 towns under lock down thus so far) and Spain reporting cases in Barcelona (one of the most visited cities in the world), it’s clear that this will continue to spread unabated.
With the World Health Organisation estimating that a vaccine will hit in 1 year at the earliest, I think it’s important to write this article devoid of the sensationalism from the media.
What is the Coronavirus?
A virus from the same family as SARS and MERS. This current shit show we are dealing with is called SARS-CoV-2 and the disease we catch from it is COVID-19. It causes respiratory infections which presents as a cold, but escalates to more serious symptoms.
What are the tell tale signs?
Dry cough, fever and feeling lethargic (tiredness). Pain, congestion, diarrhea and aches can develop.
Why is it so dangerous?
1 in 6 (roughly) of people become dangerously ill and face increasing difficulties in breathing. This is particularly problematic for our senior citizens & folks with medical issues like high blood pressure, heart problems etc.
Roughly 2% of people who contracted the disease have died, although this number is going down. That said, should it spread to epidemic levels, our medical services will become overstretched and the percentage of casualties will likely climb again.
How does it spread?
Coronavirus spreads from people who already have it as is the nature of viruses. It spreads from person to person via bodily fluids (coughs and sneezes) to an action as benign as exhaling. Tiny droplets pool on surfaces around the infected individual which leads to other people being able to catch it.
Inhaling it and touching a contaminated surface & respiratory droplets, then touching your eyes, nose and mouth are ways you catch it.
Based on what we know right now, Coronavirus primary spreads through respiratory droplets and not through the air. What this means on a practical level is 1 meter of distance (3 feet) is enough between you and an infected individual for a general “keep safe distance” as per the advice of the CDC & the WHO.
Feces can also spread it, but it’s unlikely based on the data currently available, again this is from the WHO & CDC.
What can I do to protect myself?
Don’t travel to areas with known breakouts. Be aware of your surroundings and maintain proper hygiene. Wash your hands regularly, especially after touching objects that are prone to accumulate foot traffic (think public transportation, handrails on mall elevators etc.).
Purell or other portable disinfectant is super useful in this scenario & will effectively kill the virus.
Try not to touch your eyes, nose & mouth. Easier said than done, I know but it will be the most effective defence. I recommend wearing glasses and a surgical mask as that will create a barrier between you and your subconscious movements.
Please in the name of God cover your mouth & nose when you sneeze or cough. Tissue or bent elbow folks.
Be proactive should you notice symptoms. Don’t drop into the hospital. Call your local health authority instead as it’s likely they have contingency plans regarding preferred location etc.
What about masks?
N95 & FFP2+ (FFP3, etc) masks will stop you getting Coronavirus as long as the seal is tight & you don’t touch your eyes. Prices are skyrocketing so if you can get your hands on some, it might be a good idea. I would recommend cheap surgical masks as they will stop you touching your mouth and nose, which is the biggest issue right now, and surgical masks don’t suffer from issues regarding seal. Bare in mind that N95 masks for kids are not exactly common, but the stretchy surgical masks fit everyone.
The virus can live for a few minutes to a couple of hours on a surface, based on the info we currently have. Various studies have been done on other Coronaviruses [source] which point to a longer period, but until we know with this particular strain it’s best to just be careful.
I will do my best to answer questions as I get them. Expect more in depth articles in the future, but for now I wanted a primer that was no bullshit and to the point.
I only found your website today. I just read this post dated Feb 26. You were spot on. Great article and looking back at that point I wish more people would have gotten better prepared.
Aye, sometimes it really sucks to be right but here we are. Thanks for the support mate.
Wake up to this bullshit the Virus is real & awful but it’s a cover up about the Bankers latest financial crash, get rid of these criminals & their political puppets
I don’t believe in conspiracy theories for the simple reason that those in power have demonstrated time and time again that they are too incompetent to run the country let alone manage a nefarious plot in secret.
My family and I live about 50 miles west of Seattle on the Olympic Peninsula in Washington State. Although there is only one confirmed case of Coronavirus near us, people here are very afraid. There have been runs on toilet paper, bottled water, and hand sanitizer, and also on the ingredients you need to make your own. Three of our children and 8 grandchildren live here. As a family, we are essentially approaching this as a potential survival situation, but without the panic. We have limited our contact with members of our community whenever possible, practice situational awareness with regards to routes of contamination and exposure, and employ common-sense practices to reduce the likelihood of contracting the disease without becoming ridiculous caricatures of a panic-stricken population you see in the movies (and now, unfortunately, on the news).
We expect the virus to show up here at some point, and will deal with it accordingly. My oldest son is a former Marine and fought in Iraq. He believes in the motto Adapt, Improvise, and Overcome. And so do I.
Yeah, the panic is just making a tough situation much worse. Sounds like you have your head on straight- I am sure you will be fine!
Panic buying (reportedly) here in New Zealand over w/e for masks, sanitiser, bread and milk.
I haven’t been able to find ANY hand sanitiser for a month…
We have our first confirmed case of Covid19 this past week.
Distinct shortages of various tools, spare parts etc last couple of weeks as slow down of shipping out of China.
One of the downsides of retrenched local production of recent years…
Wayne, supermarkets here are running out of rice, pasta, tinned food etc. its panic buying on a whole new level and once the lockdown takes effect- we in for some interesting times.
I don’t even feel like masks will help at this point.
Yeah, isolation and awareness of surroundings + good hygiene will have the biggest impact.
Thanks for posting Thomas! Good to see you back and offering a no BS primer…
Up to this point, US has announced minimal cases, but that will change. Stay diligent and follow above advice. Trump Administration arrogantly proclaiming “We’ve got this under control”, yet CDC contradicting and delivering warning to take steps to prepare.
Cheers DK, much appreciate the support. I shan’t comment on Trump’s (pathetic) response as I prefer to keep the blog apolitical but yeah, I expect cases will skyrocket.
consequences of civilization…
Hah! Indeed. On an unrelated note- first time I see someone other than me with a tutanota email. Very cool!
Don’t worry about masks so much. I know this may sound stupid, but doctors and virus experts say that while masks may be good if you have them, the best thing to do is to wash your hands very thoroughly. And stop shaking hands for a while. Do the ‘ebola shake’ (elbow to elbow). Seriously.
Japan had the highest number of cases outside of China, but everyone in Japan is washing their hands with soap, for minutes not seconds, and every shop, business and school has a container of medicinal alcohol fluid at the entrance, where people are instructed to spray their hands. Japan is now 4th on the list, and containing the virus. Numbers are low compared to the top 3 countries.
Hi Chris, not worried about masks and as we have seen the past few weeks- situation can get explosive real fast (Italy, Spain and France on lockdown). The real test will be when economic figures dwindle in.
please be safe out there my fellow preppers. stay clean and healthy. we that are prepared will hopefully get through this thing. i am so thankful that my children are prepared as they are all over the place from east coast to west coast, and they are ready, help your family and neighbors quietly!
Yup, the worrying thing for me is the economic impact for everyone around me. Its not a great situation and gov response (everywhere) has been lukewarm. Stay safe Pamela!
I wondered, from Day 1, how much of the actual information concerning the numbers of confirmed cases, the numbers of deaths, and the actual spread of this communal disease was being withheld and how much, which was released to the general public, was dumbed down for the sake of causing a worldwide panic?? It simply does not make any common sense the there would be such low numbers associated with only those people who had been in China or had passed through that area recently when the numbers were so staggeringly high for Chinese residents. My gut tells me that we are in for more grief and sorrow as a country and as a people here in the USA than anyone wants to let on. I pray that I am wrong and that this melts into oblivion soon. We shall see how this all shakes out eventually …….
Agreed, I think the real number is much higher. All we can do is be alert and see how it plays out Thomas.
I live a few miles from 3000 PRC students and a few miles from the international airport where it was announced today that a stewardess on the Los Angeles-Seoul route has it. Given her chores of HANDING out food and drink all through her shift and the “cleaning crew” only picking up trash and not sanitizing planes, it is here, in my neighborhood.
I am prepared to go to ground for a couple of months and assume that I will contract the same. The problem is that I will still have contact with unprepared relatives and will have to “share” preps. Example. 44 year old gets off plane, 12 pounds lighter. Mommy takes him to the doctor. If he fails tests, he is to go to hospital. He passes. Ignores doctor’s advice. Mommy has to take care of him every day. Mommy and me contract whatever he has. He will never prep. – ever. This is exactly what a researcher found happened in an English village when he looked at the migration of an epidemic.
Although the panic buying has not set in, if you look closely at the institutional product distributors, there are some shortages in supplies starting to show up.
Panic buying has set in hard here, country is on pseudo lockdown and state of alert has been declared. Lots of old people and not enough emergency rooms/ventilators. Its not a great situation, the girl and I are just hunkering down and seeing the situation as it develops. Stay safe & I hear you on the relative situation- sadly irresponsible behaviour will still occur. Saw that a major concert was held yesterday in Wales- ridiculous!
Very nicely done post, no panic, just strait up good info. Pretty much if you don’t have masks now, your either out of luck or going to pay 5X or more what they retailed for in December. Big run on them in the USA and on e bay!
Good luck to you and yours! Stay safe!
the prices have gone up allreddy
Howdy Broadwing, thanks for dropping by and support! As for the mask situation- aye, its pretty stupid. That said, the real issue is the healthcare system being incapable of coping as well as the economic impact of the lockdown. We shall see how this plays out.
I know a lot of people don’t want to hear this, but don’t panic.
These people prefer to bury their heads in the sand – well. . . go on. But don’t come running, whining if things go wrong. There are 4 words that are so satisfying:”I told you so” (LOL)
Nice to see you in the comments Kent! Sorry about the late response but been swarmed with work etc. As for panicking- completely agree. Being a prepper gives you the freedom to step back and look at the situation objectively. On that note, the Coronavirus is nothing like Ebola or political nonsense, the real risk isn’t the disease but the economic fallout. Where I am (Portugal), the service industry is on the ropes. People are struggling to keep up with mortgages due to so many of them working in insecure jobs (no contracts). If this continues, the real impact for us will be far worse than 2008/2009. So many people depend on tourism, restaurants etc. and the lockdown is hitting ’em hard.
On a supply perspective, supermarkets are running empty (admittedly, panicking buying being the core issue) and I don’t expect this to change anytime soon. We have no way of dealing with 5000+ old people needing respirators. Its just not a viable scenario with how stretched our medical system is already.
Thanks for dropping by as always!